美国着名的政治学家亨廷顿曾指出，一个国家在经济快速增长时期往往伴随比此前的贫困时期更多的“社会动荡”。[86]中国要走出这种悖论，关键就在于我们必须在维护社会稳定和犯罪控制方面找到更加切实可行的路径。从这个意义上而言，美国破窗理论及其实践，无疑为我们探索当下中国的犯罪控制路径提供了一个重要视角。
【作者简介】
李本森，中国政法大学法学院副教授，美国印第安那大学法学院(Bloomington)法学博士(S. J. D.)候选人。
【注释】本文是本人博士后研究报告《和谐社会与司法公正》的部分延伸成果。在此特别感谢博士后导师陈光中教授的悉心指导，以及卞建林、戴玉忠、杨宇冠、熊秋红各位教授的宝贵评点和建议；感谢张保生、陈卫东教授的热情鼓励与支持，两位匿名专家提出了富有见地的修改意见，李训虎、宋伦继和嵇绍军等朋友提供了诸多帮助。
Steven F. Messner and Richard Rosenfeld, Crimeand the American Dream, Belmont CA: Thomson Wadsworth, 2007, p. 26.
James Q. Wilson and George L. Kelling, "Broken Windows: The Police and Neighborhood Safety," The Atlantic Monthly, vol. 249, no. 3（March 1982）, pp. 29-38.
Kevin Cullen "The Commish: Even though Bill Bratton was unceremoniously booted out of the top job in the New York City Police Department, he''s still the apple of the city''s eye," The Boston Globe, May 25, 1997.
Christina Nifong, "One Man''s Theory Is Cutting Crime in Urban Streets." The Christian Science Monitor, February 18, 1997.
2000年的前10个月，就有235个警察部门的代表团访问纽约市警署，其中85％来自美国境外。参见Elissa Gootman, "A Police Department''s Growing Allure; Crime Fighters from Around World Visit for Tips," The New York Times, October 24, 2000.
Michael Wagers, William Sousa and George Kelling, "Broken Windows," in Richard Wortley and Lorraine Mazerolle, eds. Environmental Criminology and Crime Analysis, Cullompton: Willan Publishing, 2008, pp. 248, 251-253
2009年中国犯罪数量打破了2000年以来一直保持的平稳态势，出现大幅增长。其中，杀人、抢劫、强奸等严重暴力犯罪案件出现了较大幅度的增长。参见靳高风：《2009年中国犯罪形势及刑事政策》，李林主编：《法治蓝皮书》（2010），北京：社会科学文献出版社，2010年，第177，178—179页。
Michael Wagers, William Sousa and George Kelling, "Broken Windows," p. 253.
参见Paul Cozens, "Crime Prevention through Environmental Design," in Richard Wortley and Lorraine Mazerolle, eds., Environmental Criminology and Crime Analysis, p. 153.
孟德斯鸠：《论法的精神》上册，张雁深译，北京：商务印书馆，2005年，第273—274页。
奎特勒特是早期犯罪统计学的先驱。马克思曾经称赞他的两卷本著作《关于人》（Sur L'' Homme）为“一部优秀的和富有学术性的著作”（An Excellent and Learned Work）。参见, Karl Marx, "Capital Punishment-Mr. Cobden''s Pamphlet-Regulations of the Bank of England," New-York Daily Tribune, February 17-18, 1853.
转引自Piers Beirne, Inventing Criminology: Essays on the Rise of "Homo Criminalis," New York: State University of New York Press, 1993, pp. 83-84.
André-Michel Guerry, Essai sur la statistique morale de la France, Paris: Crochard, 1833, pp. 38, 42;亦可参见Piers Beirne, Inventing Criminology: Essays on the Rise of "Homo Criminalis," pp. 120, 122.
转引自Frank Heathcote, "Social Disorganization Theories," in Mike Fitzgerald, Gregor McLennan and Jennie Pawson, eds., Crime and Society: Readings in History and Theory, New York: Routledge 1981, pp.344-445.
转引自Frank Heathcote，"Social Disorganization Theories," pp.345.
转引自Paul Rock, "Sociological Theories of Crime," in Mike Maguire, Rod Morgan and Robert Reiner, eds., The Oxford Handbook of Criminology, New York: Oxford University Press, 2007, pp. 18-19.
Clifford R. Shaw and Henry D. McKay, Juvenile Delinquency and Urban Areas: A Study of Rates of Delinquency in Relation to Differential Characteristics of Local Communities in American Cities, Chicago: The University of Chicago Press, 1969, pp. 47, 55.
转引自Ian Colquhoun, Design out Crime: Creating Safe and Sustainable Communities, Burlington: Architectural Press, 2004, p. 38.
James Q. Wilson, Varieties of Police Behavior, Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1968, p. 91.
Oscar Newman, Defensible Space, People and Design in the Violent City, London: Architectural Press, 1973, 转引自Richard Wortley and Lorraine Mazerolle, eds., Environmental Criminology and Crime Analysis, pp. 155-156.
Patricia L. Brantingham and Paul J. Brantingham, "Residential Burglary and Urban Form," Urban Studies, vol. 12, no. 3（October 1975）, pp. 276-279.
C. Ray Jeffery, Crime Prevention through Environmental Design, Beverly Hills: Sage Publications, 1971, p. 224.
Philip G. Zimbardo, "The Human Choice: Individuation, Reason, and Order versus Deindividuation, Impulse, and Chaos," in W. J. Arnold and D. Levine, eds., Nebraska Symposium on Motivation, Lincoln: University of Nebraska Press, 1969, pp. 287-293.
James Q. Wilson and George L. Kelling, "Broken Windows: The Police and Neighborhood Safety," pp. 31-32.
Michael Wagers, William Sousa and George Kelling, "Broken Windows," pp. 256.
这里的犯罪主要指街区类犯罪或邻里社区类的犯罪。参见Michael Wagers, William Sousa and George Kelling, "Broken Windows," pp. 248, 252-253.
Wesley G. Skogan, Disorder and Decline: Crime and the Spiral of Decay in American Neighborhoods, New York: The Free Press, 1990, p. 4.
Michael Wagers, William Sousa and George Kelling, "Broken Windows," pp. 257-258.
James Q. Wilson and George L. Kelling, "Broken Windows: The Police and Neighborhood Safety," p. 32.
集体效应，指邻里间基于共同的利益和意愿而凝结的聚合力。邻里无序现象的产生是邻里集体效应弱化的标志。参见Robert J Sampson，Stephen W. Raudenbush and Felton Earls, "Neighborhoods and Violent Crime: A Multilevel Study of Collective Efficacy,'''' Science, vol. 277, no. 5328（August 1997）,pp. 918-919.
James Q. Wilson, "Foreword," in George L. Kelling and Catherine M. Coles, Fixing Broken Windows: Restoring Order and Reducing Crime in Our Communities, New York: Touchstone, 1997, p. XIV.
Michael Wagers, William Sousa and George Kelling, "Broken Windows," p. 258.
George L. Kelling and Catherine M. Coles, Fixing Broken Windows: Restoring Order and Reducing Crime in Our Communities, p. 118.
Michael Wagers, William Sousa and George Kelling, "Broken Windows," p. 259.
George L. Kelling and Jr. William H. Sousa, "Do Police Matter? An Analysis of the Impact of New York City''s Police Reform," Civic Report, no. 22, 2001, p. 17. http://www.manhattan-institute.org/pdf/cr_22.pdf, June 6, 2010.
Michael Wagers, William Sousa and George Kelling, "Broken Windows,"p 256
参见William L Melville Lee, A History of Police in England, London: Methuen, 1901, p 241
George L. Kelling and Catherine M Coles, Fixing Broken Windows: Restoring Order and Reducing Crime in Our Communities, pp. 106, 157-193.
Michael Wagers, William Sousa and George Kelling, "Broken Windows," p. 258.
Jane Jacobs, The Death and Life of Great American Cities, New York: Vintage Books, 1961, p. 40.
Michael Wagers, William Sousa and George Kelling, "Broken Windows," p. 258.
George L. Kelling and Catherine M. Coles, Fixing Broken Windows: Restoring Order and Reducing Crime in Our Communities, p. 17.
George L. Kelling and Catherine M. Coles, Fixing Broken Windows: Restoring Order and Reducing Crime in Our Communities, pp. 151-155.
Dan M. Kahan, "Social Influence, Social Meaning, and Deterrence," Virginia Law Review, vol. 83, no. 3（March 1997）, p. 367;亦可参见 Ann L. Pastore and Kathleen Maguire, eds., Sourcebook of Criminal Justice Statistics, Rockville: National Criminal Justice Reference Service, 2000.
James Q. Wilson and George L. Kelling, "A Quarter Century of Broken Windows," The American Interest, （September-October,2006）, http://www.theamerican-interest.com/article.cfm?piece=169,2010年6月14日；亦可参见“Fixing Broken Windows,” http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fixing_Broken_Windows, 2010年6月15日。
Philip B. Heymann, "Thé New Policing," Fordham Urban Law Journal, vol. 28, no. 2（December 2000），pp.409-410.关于美国犯罪率的统计资料可以登录美国司法部司法统计局、美国联邦调查局官方网站查询。
Alfred Blumstein and Joel Wallman, "The Recent Rise and Fall of America Violence," in Alfred Blumstein and Joel Wallman, eds., The Crime Drop in America, New York: Cambridge University Press, 2000, p.2；亦可参见David Von Drehle, "Why Crime Went Away: The Murder Rate in America Is at an All-Time Low. Will the Recession Reverse That?" Time, vol. 175, no. 7（February 2010）,p. 32.
George L. Kelling and Catherine M. Coles, Fixing Broken Windows: Restoring Order and Reducing Crime in Our Communities, p. 226.
Willard M. Oliver, Community-Oriented Policing: A Systemic Approach to Policing, Upper Saddle River: Prentice Hall Publishing, 2008, pp. 17-18, 84.
Willard M. Oliver, Community-Oriented Policing: A Systemic Approach to Policing, pp. 26-30.
George L. Kelling and Catherine M. Coles, Fixing Broken Windows: Restoring Order and Reducing Crime in Our Communities, p. 158.
George L. Kelling and Catherine M. Coles, Fixing Broken Windows: Restoring Order and Reducing Crime in Our Communities, pp. 240-241.
Michael Wagers, William Sousa and George Kelling, "Broken Windows," p. 256.
Herman Goldstein, "Improving Policing: A Problem-Oriented Approach," Crime and Delinquency, vol. 25, no. 2（April 1979）, pp. 236-258.
Herman Goldstein, Problem-Oriented Policing, Philadelphia: Temple University Press, 1990, pp. 32-49.
George L. Kelling and Catherine M. Coles, Fixing Broken Windows: Restoring Order and Reducing Crime in Our Communities, pp. 225-227.
Wesley G. Skogan, Susan M. Hartnett, Jill DuBois, et al., "Problem Solving in Practice: Implementing Community Policing in Chicago," Research Report for National Institute of Justice, 2000, http://www.ncjrs.gov/pdffilesl/nij/179556.pdf,2010年6月6日。
George L. Kelling and Catherine M. Coles, Fixing Broken Windows: Restoring Order and Reducing Crime in Our Communities, pp. 71-73.
George Kelling, "''Broken Windows'' and Police Discretion," Research Report for National Institute of Justice, 1999, http://www.ncjrs.gov/pdffilesl/nij/178259.pdf, 2010年6月7日。
George Kelling, "''Broken Windows'' and Police Discretion," Research Report for National Institute of Justice, 1999, pp. 22-23.
George Kelling, "''Broken Windows'' and Police Discretion," Research Report for National Institute of Justice, 1999, p. 34.
James Q. Wilson and George L. Kelling, "A Quarter Century of Broken Windows."
Wesley G. Skogan, Disorder and Decline: Crime and the Spiral of Decay in American Neighborhoods, pp. 73-75.
Deborah Cohen, Suzanne Spear, Richard Scribner, et al., "''Broken Windows'' and the Risk of Gonorrhea," American Journal of Public Health, vol. 90, no. 2（February 2000）, p. 230.
George L. Kelling and Jr. William H. Sousa, "Do Police Matter？ An Analysis of the Impact of New York City''s Police Reform."
James Q. Wilson and George L. Kelling, "A Quarter Century of Broken Windows."
Anthony A. Braga, David L. Weisburd, Elin J. Waring, et al., "Problem-Oriented Policing in Violent Crime Places: A Randomized Controlled Experiment," Criminology, vol. 37, no. 3（August 1999）,pp. 541-580.
Bernard E. Harcourt, Illusion of Order: The False Promise of Broken Windows Policing, Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 2001, p. 78.
Bernard E. Harcourt and Jens Ludwig, "Broken Windows: New Evidence from New York City and a Five-City Social Experiment," University of Chicago Law Review, vol. 73, no. 1（Winter 2006）, pp. 273-320.
James Q. Wilson and George L. Kelling, "A Quarter Century of Broken Windows; "亦可参见 Michael Wagers, William Sousa and George Kelling, "Broken Windows, " in Richard Wortley and Lorraine Maze rolle, eds., Environmental Criminology and Crime Analysis, p. 256.
Ralph B. Taylor, Breaking Away from Broken Windows: Baltimore Neighborhoods and the Nationwide Fight against Crime, Grime, Fear, and Decline, Boulder: Westview Press, 2001, pp. 3950, 105-107.
Peter K. B. St. Jean, Pockets of Crime: Broken Windows, Collective Efficacy and the Criminal Point of View, Chicago: The University Chicago Press, 2007, pp. 24-29, 40.
根据最新报道的对破窗理论的一项试验，研究者将一些明显装有现金的信件分别置于整洁有序社区的邮箱和无序社区的那些充满涂鸦的邮箱的突出位置，便于这些信件被过往行人顺手取走。结果发现，整洁有序的社区，只有13％的过路者偷了那些装有现金的信封；而在那个不整洁的社区，27％的过路者偷走了信件。这项试验可以在一定程度上证明无序环境对犯罪的诱导性要高于有序的环境。参见Carolyn Y. Johnson, "Breakthrough on''Broken Windows'',
http://www.boston.com/news/local/massachusetts/articles
/2009/02/08/breakthrough_on_broken_windows/?page=2,2010年6月8日。
James Q. Wilson and George L. Kelling, "A Quarter Century of Broken Windows."
靳高风：《2009年中国犯罪形势及刑事政策》，李林主编：《法治蓝皮书》（2010），第177—186页。
George L. Kelling and Catherine M. Coles, Fixing Broken Windows: Restoring Order and Reducing Crime in Our Communities, pp. 157-158.
Willard M. Oliver, Community-Oriented Policing: A Systemic Approach to Policing, pp. 28-29.
刘宏斌：《当前社区警务工作存在的问题及对策》，《中国人民公安大学学报》（社会科学版）2009年第5期。
王世卿：《社区警务室建设实证分析》，《中国人民公安大学学报》（社会科学版）2009年第4期。
根据美国的经验，培育一个成熟的微观的社区导向警务需要1年半到4年多的时间，而培育一个宏观的社区导向警务大概需要4年半到10年左右的时间，而完全成熟的社区导向警务需要6年半到14年的时间。参见Willard M. Oliver, Community-Oriented Policing: A Systemic Approach to Policing, p. 149.
George L. Kelling and Catherine M. Coles, Fixing Broken Windows: Restoring Order and Reducing Crime in Our Communities, p. 226.
靳高风：《2009年中国犯罪形势及刑事政策》，李林主编：《法治蓝皮书》（2010），第180页。
Timothy D. Crowe, Crime Prevention through Environmental Design: Applications of Architectural Design and Space Management Concepts, Woburn: Butterworth-Heinemann, 2000, pp. 128-129.
"Neighborhood Watch Sticker Scheme Launched," http://www.neighbourhoodwatch.net/index.php?func=PageStory&Type=News&Storyld=1790, 2010年6月9日。
Timothy D. Crowe, Crime Prevention through Environmental Design, pp. 1-11.
Samuel P. Huntington, Political Order in Changing Societies, New Haven: Yale University Press, 2006, pp. 4-5.
