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【注释】马尔·古德芒德松是国际清算银行货币与经济部门的副主席。文章表达的是作者本人的看法，但不一定是国际清算银行的观点。
译者简介：岳金禄（1980-），男，湖南省邵东县人，西北政法大学2007届经济法学硕士研究生，现就职于中国人民银行西安分行。
【参考文献】附英文原稿:
Financial globalisation and challenges for prudential policies and macroeconomic management
Speech by Már Gudmundsson at a meeting of the Institut International d’Etudes Bancaires, Reykjavik, Iceland, 18 May 2007.
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Abstract:
Financial globalisation is a process of ever tighter cross-border financial integration that will, at the limit, result in risk-adjusted real returns on assets with the same maturity and other characteristics being equal across countries. Although financial globalisation has made big strides in recent years, this state of affairs has not materialised. Financial globalisation has important benefits but also poses significant challenges for prudential and monetary policies. For prudential policies the fundamental problem lies in the mismatch between the international scope of banking institutions and the national scope of the frameworks for banking supervision and crisis management. For monetary policy, the problem is that the weakening of the interest rate channel of monetary transmission at the same time as the exchange rate might have a tendency to decouple from fundamentals in the short- to medium-term.
Full speech:
Chairman, ladies and gentlemen,
It is a great honour for me to speak in front of such a distinguished audience of European bankers. My topic today is financial globalisation and the challenges it creates for prudential policies and macroeconomic management. In choosing this topic, I am partly influenced by my own personal experience of having been chief economist at the central bank of a very small open economy, that is here in Iceland, and then subsequently having a more global perspective at the Bank for International Settlements.
To that sum we have to add all the interdependencies, the markets that clear at the global level, international flows of goods, labour and capital, and many of the institutions that you represent, internationally active banks; and even this would not be a complete list. When analysing the world economy we therefore need first to look at the whole before going to the individual parts. We at the BIS have been trying to develop our analytical tools, our indicators and our data with this in mind.
When I moved from the Central Bank of Iceland to the BIS, I found it relatively easy to switch from the small open economy perspective to the global perspective. This may be partly due to the fact that my own country cannot have much relevance for global economic developments, although it was able to upset global markets for a few days in February last year. However, that episode, along with related experiences of other small mature open economies like New Zealand, woke the small open economist in me, but now within the global context. The key question is how ongoing financial globalisation is changing the environment within which domestic prudential and macroeconomic policies are framed and, consequently, how these policies might have to change? This is the motivation for my theme today.
The progress of financial globalisation
Let me, for good order, start by defining what I mean by financial globalisation. I take it to mean cross-border financial integration that is reasonably spread around the globe. Financial integration, in turn, is the process by which financial markets and institutions become more tightly interlinked and move closer towards a fully integrated financial market, where economic agents in different locations face a single set of rules, have equal access to financial assets and services and are treated equally. By implication, the law of one price would hold in such a fully integrated market, that is risk-adjusted real returns on assets with the same maturity and other characteristics would be equal.
The benefits of cross-border financial integration in terms of financial sector development, potential for risk-sharing and promotion of economic integration and growth are widely appreciated and so are the associated risks of surges and sudden stops in capital flows, contagion and vulnerability to financial crises. Almost everybody is trying to find the Holy Grail of reaping the benefits and mitigating the risks.
What is probably less well understood are the implications of the fact that financial globalisation is a process rather than a state of nature. This is maybe partly because macroeconomic textbooks jump from totally controlled capital movements to full global interest rate arbitrage from one page to the next. It is important to bear in mind that this process is only partly driven by government action. In addition, we have a market-driven process of financial innovation and evolving financial structures that will work to gradually increase cross-border financial integration.
Financial globalisation being a process has at least two implications. First, we would like to be able to measure where we are in the process. Second, different countries and regions will at any point in time be at a different stage.
Financial globalisation should manifest itself in stronger co-movement of risk-adjusted real asset returns across countries, a reduction in home bias in domestic portfolios, a higher level of gross cross-border capital flows and stocks of cross-border assets and liabilities, and an increase in cross-border banking and foreign direct investment in the financial industry. Theory also suggests an increase in the scope for international risk-sharing, which would be reflected in a lower correlation of domestic consumption and GDP.
Many of these manifestations lend themselves to some kind of measurement. Using the BIS international banking statistics and other sources, we see that the trend of financial globalisation is unmistakable. Let me mention a few stylised facts:
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